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Forecasting Cashflow

Ryan Carson, who is currently managing 4 internet businesses and a conference/training company posted some level-headed tips for forecasting cashflow. Real businesses can not hope some corporate buyer or magic elf will resolve their fiscal shortcoming. Real businesses know how much cash they have and try and spend within those limits. Cashflow is not nearly as meaningful a gauge as earnings, but still much better indicator of a company’s health than forecasting revenues, burnrate or worse!

Anyone that 100% wants their business to be there in a year has to be prepared for the worst and cannot risk lying to themselves. Don’t get me wrong it’s fine taking a big risk with your business … if you’re okay losing it.

Here’s are some other cashflow tips that come to mind.

Prepare for seasonal differences. Having 3 great months in the spring in no way guarantees the summer or winter will be in line. I know a large advertising concern whose sales people only work in the fall and spring when budgets are spent, because they can’t even get anyone to answer their calls in the other months

Keep track of how many months of expenses you have in the bank. Traditionally a healthy business has six months expenses in the bank. This is hard to do, but always know how many months (or weeks) you do have and strive to improve on that in the future

[Maybe John V will read this and add some more ...]

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Sending Email is a Big Headache for Small Companies with Popular Websites

While many web technologies are getting much cheaper (if not completely free) some services are becoming much more expensive and time consuming. Sending emails is a perfect example.

About 10 months into existence we experienced our first misclassification as a spammer, eaming all our sent mail goes straight to bulk or trash folders. Since then it’s been a day-by-day battle to remain white-listed by all large ISPs (e.g. Hotmail, Gmail, Bellsouth, Comcast, AOL, MSN, Yahoo, etc.) We understand their services have been crushed by spam for years and they’ve have to over-aggressively filter, bounce, or silently delete incoming mail, making big headaches for innocent small and medium businesses

When we first had problems in late 2004 we were sending out 50,000 member-requested emails a week. Since mail functions are so deeply wired into core server technologies the average web engineer has no ideas how many emails are going out. I sure didn’t. But now I do. We’re sending about 400,000 member-requested emails a week. We’ve had to dedicate significant amounts of time (and thus money) to become sendmail geeks, mastering the myriad error codes, loopback systems and contact policies of the large mail providers and scripting many back-end and website functions to stay in compliance as best we can. We’ve even had to retain a mail delivery analysis partner, and still debate if we’ll have to pay a third party to send all out emails. If one of us was already a master of sendmail, and had connections at big mail providers this would be easy, but how many people fit that descirption in the average 10 person start-up?

Here are all the steps we’ve had to take to be able to send our own emails - some are much harder and more expensive than others.

  • Perfect and frequently review our outgoing mail headers so they always conform to the ISPs preferred settings.
  • Collect, filter and database every single bounce-back email. Depending on the response error we than must wait 30 days or never send an email to that addresses again. (ISPs keep track of each bounceback they send out. If they send a bounceback twice they consider you at-risk even though the member has asked us to send them an email at that address.)
  • We have a double opt-in system for all members that want to get emails form us. Since day one there has been an option to ‘never get email’
  • We have a two-click unsubscribe feature at the footer of each newsletter. Member password is not required.
  • All member-request emails, such as friend-invites and virtual gift notifications offer direct links to modify their account to not get such email notifications.
  • We have set-up loopback emails accounts for all the major ISPs. Emails are sent to these accounts each time a person marks mail from us as spam. Marking email as spam is a huge problem because the member innocently believes they are harmlessly keeping their inbox free of email they are no longer interested in, but they are also telling their mail provider we are a probably a spammer. The ISP tehn forwards a copy of the email the person marked as spam and for now we manually open each one of those figure out who it was sent to and manually unset that user’s preference to stop receiving such emails. (Yes, we’d love to script this but their are so many variants we still do by hand.)
  • We have added code to our website that alerts members if an email we sent them was bounced backed and how they can fix it. Once we get a bounce-back we can’t email them for at least 30 days even if it was a 5 minute problem because someone sent them a 50Mb attachment. (Asking members for an alternate email from the get-go now sounds much more appealing).
  • We have retained a professional mail delivery monitoring service (ReturnPath) which has hundreds of test accounts over all the big ISPs and we can determine which ISPs are routing our mail to bulk folders or worse. It’s important to realize that of the many spam checks an ISP deploys is messages-sent-per-hour. Thus, we can be a member in good standing, then a spammer, then a member in good standing all in the course of a three hour period.
  • We have notification code in a couple places on the site that alert members who are using an ISP that misdeliverying our mail to bulk or spam folders that they should either whitelist us by adding our email address to their mail client’s address book, or switch to using a email address with a more trusting mail server.
  • While I used to be disgusted at AOL’s and Yahoo’s plan to start charging email senders to deliver their messages, considering the money we have to spend to stay in their good graces, we would now prefer to simply pay in advance for our emails to be delivered and know that they will.

    Also want to say we’re not proud or bragging about any of our solutions. If anyone knows how to do these things better, more effieciently or has better connections in the mail departments of any major ISPs we’d really appreciate sharing any ideas in the comments.

    UPDATE 12/19/06: AOL just whitelisted our entire domains. Praise Dog! This has been a very long time coming. It’s hardly as simple as asking. ALL email-sending IPs have to be considered spam-free for decent length of time. To stay whitelisted we’ll have to keep their complaint rates under 0.1%, bounce rates under 10% and bounce acceptance rates above 90%. Fortunately we can now dip under these rates and get a postmaster email instead of an immediate spammer classification. As long as the problem is rectified quickly we should remain whitelisted.

    Digg It or Del.icio.us It

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    Dogster & Catster Video Stars (Already!)

    The new video rating and viewing areas we call Dogster Video and Catster Video are already bubbling up some truly wonderful and poignant works. Members are exploring their creativity, their shared loves and their deepest emotions. It doesn’t get any more sincere, innocent and real than this.

    How cute is this video with Nila called “Anything for Turkey Bacon!


    Watch this powerful video and learn about Nemo a brave kitty living with Feline Immunodeficiency Virus, feline AIDS :(


     

    (You feed readers who can’t see embeded videos should click thru now to watch.)

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    Dogster Jumps to the National Stage

    Here are some screen shots from our sponsor partnership with NBC’s 2006 National Dog Show presented by Purina. Read more details.

    Dogster.com, a partner sponsor of the NBC National Dog Show presented by Purina

    Dogster.com, a partner sponsor of the NBC National Dog Show presented by Purina

    Dogster.com, a partner sponsor of the NBC National Dog Show presented by Purina

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    Happy Petsgiving from Dogster & Catster

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    Dogster is running with the Big Dogs

    Check this out: Dogster.com has partnered with media alpha dog NBC to help build awareness for their annual Dog Show USA—a ‘virtual’ online dog show open to pups of all shapes, sizes, breeds and backgrounds.

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    On Thanksgiving day at noon in all time zones, following the hugely popular and can’t-be-missed Macy’s parade, NBC will air the National Dog Show sponsored in part by yours truly. Dogster will receive extensive mentions during the broadcast and we’re the exclusive sponsor of this Terrier group. Be sure to grab lots of treats and park yourself in front of the tube. Bravo will also re-broadcast the event in its entirety on November 25.

    screens_tveye-36891.jpeg But the fun doesn’t end there. Dogster will also be hosting a sweepstakes where you can win iPods and free years of Purina dog food all as part getting the paw out about Dog Show USA presented by Purina. Make sure to enter your personality-laden pup in Dogster’s Cutest Dog Category. While there, you can even opt in to the Purina Petcentric newsletter—packed with pets care tips and other info.

    Keep your ears up and pics ready for all the details.

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    Dogster & Catster Video Centers Are Live

    Have you ever wanted to see just the best dog and cat videos? Us too. So we made a viewing, rating and commenting area that shows all the best videos uploaded to our sites. There’s Dog Videos and Cat Videos and they’re sweet, endearing and informative. We made it so anyone can rate a video (on a scale of 5 paws) or pick how cute it is (cute, Super Cute & CRAZY CUTE).

    See what happens when a sweet doberman meets a tiny puppy
    Dacquari and friend

    Meet a brave, happy cat with Feline Immunodeficiency Virus
    Nemo, a brave, happy cat with FIV

    Special shout out to our partners at VideoEgg. Their platforms sits entirely within out framework of our site such that our members can upload, review and share videos both on their pet pages and the video channel without ever leaving Dogster or Catster.

    And another big shout to Dogsters Leef & Ellen for getting it live.

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    Discovery Communications Buys Petfinder.com and Petvideo.com

    In a growing trend of television media companies acquiring websites, Discovery Communications, purchased the respected online pet adoption site Petfinder.com, as well as a newer company by the same founders, PetsIncredible, producers of pet-related DVDs and the new, small petvideo.com for about $35 million. Both companies will be folded into Discovery’s newly formed group Animal Planet Media Enterprises, which includes the Animal Planet network. Now that Petfinder is part of a publicly traded company I believe that leaves just us and the American Kennel Club as the biggest independent pet-related web destinations.

    This is a new foray for Discovery, which was having difficult times in 2005. For years Petfinder.com was the definitive site to post and find pets needing a new home, though it feels like it’s been on cruise control for some years now. We have huge respect for Petfinder and even made a conscious decision not to compete with their important service and risk devaluing the life-saving connections they created.

    We’re happy that the PetFinder owners were able to profit from all their hard work, but acquisitions are not always great for users. Discovery is a big company and is forced to focus on profit before all else. It will be very interesting to see what the combination of services will bring and if Petfinder’s respect status as a trusted non-corporate service will remain as high.

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    PodTech’s LunchMeet Meets Dogster, Inc.

    Irina Slutsky and Eddie Codel of PodTech.net's LunchMeet interview Ted Rheingold, Steven Reading & John Vars

    Eddie Codel and Irina Slutsky, the hosts of PodTech.net came to Dogster, Inc. for lunch and an interview with the founders.

    The result was a 20 minute video interview you can watch now.

    I’ve been watching Eddie & Irina for a year now on GeekEntertainmentTV and I really like their style. They know what they are talking about, they know how to ask interesting questions and they are able to convey the importance of a certain topic without screaming hype like an Entertainment Tonight host. Their goal is to simplify what is interesting, not complicate. Kudos.

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    U.S. Senate & House Pass Atrocious Puppy Mill Defense Bill

    The U.S. House and Senate both voted that Puppy Mills are so unassailable that it is criminal for a person to even promote the fact they aren’t. So I’d like to say loud and clear that Puppy Mills are awful unethical medieval places that should be made illegal immediately. If that opinion violates the awfully named “Animal Enterprise Terrorism Act” then come and get us at 555 De Haro St. #350, SF, CA.

    Puppy Mills are unethical facilities that literally factory farm puppies for pet stores, overnight shippers and auctions. I’ll spare you the heart-wrenching photos. But know that females are bred until their organs literally slip out and animals live in squalid cage conditions. Sick ones are tossed out and the ones that live are sold to unknowing families. Puppy Mills sad awful awful dirty little secret that anyone that cares about dogs knows all about.

    So I guess no one in the U.S. Senate House of Representative cares about dogs, the First Amendment or the right of peaceful conscientious citizens. Joy, over at the Dogster Dog Blog has been on it and now are we.

    Here’s what the Farm Sanctuary has to say:

    The misleadingly-named “Animal Enterprise Terrorism Act,�? HR 4239 and S 3880 (formerly S 1926), seeks to clamp down on animal rights activities by using a broad brush to paint activists as “terrorists�? simply because they oppose institutionalized animal cruelty.

    The Senate passed the bill September, 30th 2006 and a quickie move to a voice vote on Monday of this week led to a passage in the House. The only thing keeping this from being a law is language reconciliation between the two versions. Please tell you incoming representatives to reverse this vote.

    From Joy. You will be a criminal terrorist if:

  • You call for a boycott of groups supporting puppy mills
  • You peacefully protest outside of puppy mills, puppy mill auctions or stores that sell dogs and cats!
  • You write a letter or blog entry that encourages legislation stopping puppy mills!
  • You encourage a boycott of companies that use animals for testing or research!
  • The industries that presented this bill are greedy unethical animal exploiters and the legislators who passed this without thinking are reprehensible. Why in our country would we ever deny a citizen to peacefully speak out against a practice they don’t agree with brings fear to my heart.

    Get active: www.stopaeta.org and www.noaeta.org. Tell George Bush to veto this bill. Tell your incoming Congresspeople to right this wrong.